Quarterback Perception Index
How does conventional wisdom gauge the greatest QBs in NFL history?
All stats in this article are through the 2024 NFL season (Eagles def. Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX).
In 2017, I introduced a stat I called "Hall of Fame Index." It's similar to a Hall of Fame Monitor:
This is designed to approximate popular opinion and HOF voting standards. I believe it has predictive value as a gauge of conventional wisdom and HOF probability, but I beg you not to treat it as a meaningful measure of skill or accomplishment.
I've renamed the stat Quarterback Perception Index because it really gauges conventional wisdom and present-day perception more than Hall of Fame likeliness. Nonetheless, this is a great way of evaluating whether recent players like Philip Rivers and Eli Manning — both of whom are on the Hall of Fame ballot this year — are likely to be enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and of calculating how active players like Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, etc., are progressing.
The formula for this stat — QBPI — is based on Pro Bowl selections, All-Pro and MVP selections, postseason success, a timeline adjustment, and Adjusted TSP and Career Value, both of which are derived from box stats; click the button below for the detailed formula. (This is not scintillating reading, but I want to be transparent about the methodology.)
TSP and Career Value
QB-TSP stands for Quarterback Total Statistical Production. The formula is:
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Passing Yards – Sack Yards – [constant * (Attempts + Sacks) ] + (20 * Passing Touchdowns) – (40 * Interceptions) + (0.5 * Rushing Yards) + (20 * Rush Touchdowns) – (20 * Fumbles)
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The constant approximates replacement level and varies depending on the era: it moves to reflect quality of competition, changes in the game, and the level of passing efficiency. Since 2009, the value has been set at 4.5, so a 10-yard completion is worth +5.5, and an incomplete pass is worth -4.5.
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Even with the differing constant in the TSP formula, era adjustments are necessary. All seasons are pro-rated to 16 games. Furthermore, I use a rolling five-year average and normalize all scores so that the average of the top 10 scorers is about 1,750. This is Adjusted TSP.
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I use Career Value to prevent compilers from crowding out talented players with short careers, and to reduce the impact of hang-around value. To calculate CV, apply a ^1.85 exponent to each individual season in a QB's career, then sum the total. You can find more information about TSP and CV here.
If you're interested in a detailed explanation of how I incorporated All-Pro and MVP selections into the formula, click the button below.
All-Pro Points
Instead of pure All-Pro selections, I use what I call All-Pro Points. From 1970-present, I used the Associated Press All-Pro Team. I counted First-Team selections as 3 points and Second-Team selections as 1 point. A First-Team selection by one or more other major organizations (such as The Sporting News), for a player not named First-Team by AP, counts as +1, and an MVP selection by any major organization was worth +1.
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For instance, in 2016, Tom Brady was named Second-Team All-Pro by AP (1 pt), but First-Team by the Sporting News, so he scored 2 pts that season. The score of AP First-Team All-Pro Matt Ryan was unaffected, remaining 4 points (including his MVP selection). In 1993, the AP All-Pros were Steve Young and John Elway, but the Sporting News chose Troy Aikman. Young scored 3, and Aikman and Elway 1 each. In 1990, Joe Montana scored 4 points, with Randall Cunningham and Warren Moon earning 2 each.
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Prior to 1970, things are a little trickier. In 1968 and 1969, I counted a First-Team All-Pro selection (by any major organization) as 2 points, and a Second-Team All-Pro or First-Team All-League selection as 1 point, with MVPs still earning +1. From 1960-67, I gave 2 points for a major organization’s First-Team All-NFL QB, and 1 point each for Second-Team All-NFL or First-Team All-AFL. MVP of either league earned an additional +1.
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From 1950-59, I gave 2 points to the First-Team All-Pro of any major organization, 3 points for a consensus across all the major organizations. Any major Second-Team selection earned 1 point, and any major MVP award earned +1. In 1950 and 1952, when no major organization named an MVP, I gave one extra point to Johnny Lujack and Otto Graham, respectively, based on a subjective but educated guess that they would have been the leading candidates. Lujack is probably the more controversial of the two, and his point total isn’t terribly significant in this project anyway.
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The ’40s, with the NFL and AAFC, were a mess. I’m not going to explain each year, because this section is already too long, but I’ll list the points I awarded. In 1949, I gave Otto Graham 3 points, Bob Waterfield 2, and Frankie Albert and Tommy Thompson 1 each. In 1948, I gave Albert, Graham, Thompson, and Sammy Baugh 2 each. In 1947, 3 for Graham, 2 for Baugh, and 1 each for Paul Christman, George Ratterman, and Albert. In 1946, I awarded 2 for Sid Luckman and Waterfield, 1 each for Albert, Graham, and Christman.
And here's how I incorporated team success.
Championship Points
Throughout the Super Bowl era, quarterbacking a Super Bowl victory counts for 3 points, while starting for a Super Bowl-losing team earns 1 point. From 1966-69, I also awarded 1 point to a quarterback whose team lost the NFL Chanpionship Game. From 1960-65, I awarded 3 points for an NFL title game victory, 2 points for an AFL title game victory, and 1 point each for a loss in the NFL or AFL Chanpionship Game. In the 1950s, a win was worth 3 and a loss worth 1. And from 1946-49, an NFL or AAFC championship win earned 2 points, with a loss earning 1 point.
I've tweaked the formula for QBPI a little since it was first published, and this is what it looks like now:
(Adjusted TSP / 3000) + (Career Value / 1.5) + (3 * Pro Bowls) + (1.75 * All-Pro Points) + (4 * Championship Points) + (1.5 * Super Bowl era Conference Championship losses) + [ (Rookie Year + Final Year – 4000) / 25 ]
Again, click the arrows above for explanations of "Adjusted TSP," "Career Value," "All-Pro Points" and "Championship Points." To more accurately reflect modern perceptions, I halved the value of Pro Bowls, All-Pro points, and Championship Points prior to the Super Bowl era. AFL All-Star Games are worth half as much as Pro Bowls.
As an example, Matt Schaub has 7,549 TSP, 9.52 CV, 2 Pro Bowls, no All-Pro selections or Conference Championship Game appearances, and played from 2004-17. His score is 2.52 + 5.29 + 6 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0.84 = 14.65.
The results are not perfect; there are some hiccups. However, the formula acknowledges the impact of stats, postseason honors, team success, and recency bias. I rounded to whole numbers, but there are a lot of decimals hidden; there are no ties.
Here's an approximate guide to the scoring:
- 200+: Almost universally considered the GOAT
- 110-199: In the 2nd- or 3rd-best-of-all-time discussion
- 75-109: In the all-time top 10 discussion
- 60-74: Not an inner-circle all-timer, but a non-controversial Hall of Famer, probably first or second ballot
- 50-59: Hall of Famer
- 45-49: Likely Hall of Famer
- 40-44: Borderline Hall of Famer
- 30-39: Your name will come up in HOF discussions for 25 years but never go anywhere
- 20-29: No one in the mainstream thinks of you as a HOFer, but a lot of people remember you fondly, including people who weren't fans of your primary team
- Below 20: Not considered to be a player of historical caliber
The list is restricted to the Modern Era. Anyone who played before 1946 is omitted. Some of them were great players, but most modern fans have never heard of them.
