Matthew Stafford Joins 400 TD Club

Two weeks ago, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford became the ninth player in NFL history to throw at least 400 touchdown passes. Here's the list, as of Week 10:

1. Tom Brady, 649
2. Drew Brees, 571
3. Peyton Manning, 539
4. Aaron Rodgers, 521
5. Brett Favre, 508
6. Philip Rivers, 421
7. Dan Marino, 420
8. Ben Roethlisberger, 418
9. Matt Stafford, 402

Marino was the first player to throw 400 TDs, hitting the mark in 1998. He stood alone until 2006, when Favre threw his 400th. Next was Manning, in 2012. Brady and Brees got there in 2015, Rivers and Rodgers in 2020, Big Ben in 2021, and now Stafford.

Russell Wilson has 353 TD passes, but it doesn't look like he will get to 400. Kirk Cousins (288) and Joe Flacco (270) are next among active players, and they might not get to 300. It would be shocking if Patrick Mahomes (262) doesn't throw 400 TDs. Andy Dalton (252) is the only other active player above 250, and I think any speculation beyond that is premature. In 2030, the 400 Club is probably going to look the same as it does now, perhaps with Mahomes joining the list.

Even as passing stats have exploded, 400 TDs are not cheap; it's not a common mark to hit. Six of the nine QBs on the list are inner-circle Hall of Famers. Roethlisberger is not quite at that level, but he's likely to be a first-ballot HOFer. Rivers doesn't have the same narrative, but he's a Hall of Fame quarterfinalist in his first year on the ballot. He made eight Pro Bowls — every QB with more than six is in Canton or not yet eligible — received Offensive Player of the Year votes in three straight seasons, and led the NFL at various times in passing yards, passing touchdowns, passer rating, net yards per attempt, and fourth-quarter comebacks. I am cautiously optimistic that he will get a gold jacket at some point.

So where does Stafford fit in all this? Has he joined the immortals? Is his career now Hall of Fame quality?

Looking at conventional box stats, Stafford has some awfully impressive numbers. He is ninth all-time top 10 in passing yards, touchdowns, and TD/INT differential.

However, as you probably know, passing stats have exploded in the last two decades. Any all-time stat you look at, the top 10 will probably be Dan Marino and nine guys who played in the 2010s. Being the 9th-best QB of your generation is not anything special. That's reflected in Stafford's relatively modest résumé of awards and honors: 2 Pro Bowls, no All-Pro selections, no Offensive Player of the Year or MVP awards, and no Super Bowl MVPs.

Two Pro Bowls is an extremely modest total, and I think most fans would agree that it does not accurately represent the regard in which Stafford is usually held. He did not make the Pro Bowl in 2011, when he passed for 5,000 yards and 40 TDs, or in 2021, when he again threw 40 TDs, averaged 7.4 NY/A (3rd in NFL), and led the Rams to a Super Bowl championship. He will probably make the Pro Bowl this year, and that is not yet reflected in his total.

While Stafford easily could have made a couple more Pro Bowls, his thin awards résumé clearly shows that he has never been seriously considered as a contender for the best QB in football, or particularly close to it. Through most of his career, Stafford has been regarded as an above-average but not elite quarterback.

In the first 2/3 or so of Stafford's career, the quarterback position was dominated by Brady, Brees, Peyton Manning, and Rodgers — all of whom were drafted between 1998-2005. More recently, the main standouts are Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen, all rookies in 2017 or '18. Perhaps the most natural comparison for Stafford (2009-present) is to Matt Ryan (2008-22). They have pretty similar counting stats (through 23 Nov 2025):

The efficiency stats are also very similar: