Eli Manning and the Pro Football Hall of Fame

All stats in this article are through the 2024 season (Eagles def. Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX).

Following the 2019 NFL season, longtime New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning retired. He had 57,027 passing yards, 366 touchdowns, 4 Pro Bowl selections, and 2 Super Bowl MVPs. After the mandatory five-year waiting period, Manning appeared on the Pro Football Hall of Fame ballot for the first time last year. He was chosen as a finalist but was not elected. On Wednesday, he was again named a PFHOF semifinalist.

Does Eli Manning deserve a bust in Canton?

Manning's 57,027 passing yards rank 11th all-time. Everyone ahead of him is in the Hall of Fame or not yet eligible.

Manning's 366 touchdowns also rank 11th all-time. Everyone ahead of him is in the Hall of Fame or not yet eligible.

Manning's 4 Pro Bowl selections are a little low for a Hall of Fame QB, but that's as many as HOFers Bart Starr, Ken Stabler, and Kurt Warner, and it's more than Terry Bradshaw (3).

The only players with multiple Super Bowl MVPs are Starr, Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Eli Manning.

Of course Eli deserves a gold jacket. Right?

Well, let's add a little more context to the stats above.

Manning's 57,027 passing yards rank 11th all-time. Of the ten players ahead of him, three are in the Hall of Fame (Dan Marino, Brett Favre, and older brother Peyton Manning) and seven are not yet eligible. Passing stats have exploded in recent decades, due to rule changes and the evolution of strategy, and 57k doesn't mean what it used to.

Eli was drafted in 2004; among players drafted between 1999-2009, he ranks 8th in passing yardage. No one wants to put the 8th-best QB of his generation in Canton. That's a quarter of the league.

The same thing applies to passing TDs. The ten players ahead of Manning are the same, though the order shuffles a little.

Four Pro Bowls is a low number for a Hall of Fame quarterback. It is not disqualifying, but it is not an impressive figure. Contemporary QBs with four Pro Bowls include Kirk Cousins, Jeff Garcia, Andrew Luck, and Michael Vick, none of whom ever has been (or is ever likely to be) a Hall of Fame semifinalist, much less a finalist or an electee. Ben Roethlisberger, who was drafted the same year as Eli and also won two Super Bowls, was chosen to six Pro Bowls, 50% more. Philip Rivers, also drafted the same year as Eli and Ben, made eight Pro Bowls, twice as many as Eli.

Donovan McNabb made six Pro Bowls, and he's never been a Hall of Fame semifinalist. Russell Wilson has made 10 Pro Bowls. Peyton has 14, and Brady has 15. Four is not really a Hall of Fame standard. This is — at best — neutral for Eli.

So it turns out that Eli Manning's case for HOF induction rests almost entirely on his two Super Bowl MVP awards. Let's come back to that.

The crazy thing is that so far, I've been concentrating on the stats that make Eli look best.